Victoria is heading into a winter that is expected to be warmer and drier than usual, with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting above average temperatures across the country and below average rainfall across much of south-eastern Australia.
The latest long-range outlook points to Victoria as one of the states most likely to feel the effects of the developing El Niño climate pattern, with western parts of the state singled out as having an increased chance of an unusually dry winter.
Rainfall across winter is expected to sit below average for much of Victoria, particularly later in the season. While June is already leaning drier than normal, the Bureau says the signal becomes stronger through July and August as conditions continue to shift.
For Melbourne and regional Victoria, that could mean fewer cold fronts, less soaking rain and more mild winter days than usual. Daytime and overnight temperatures are both tipped to land well above average, with a strong chance parts of the state could record temperatures in the warmest 20 per cent of historical winter records.
Despite the forecast, the Bureau says Victoria’s snow season is far from over before it begins. Snow levels can still change rapidly if the right cold system moves through alpine regions like Falls Creek and Mount Buller, bringing enough moisture and low temperatures for snowfall.
The developing El Niño is expected to play a role in the season ahead, although forecasters say it has not officially formed yet. The Bureau is continuing to monitor ocean and atmospheric conditions before formally declaring the event.
For now, Victorians can likely expect a winter with fewer soaking weekends, milder mornings and a stronger reminder that Australia’s seasons are continuing to shift.
